马云又说对了？如果不出意外，2025年下半年楼市将发生重大转变

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant transformation, with a notable decline in housing prices and a shift in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a potential long-term adjustment in the market [1][3][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total number of housing units in China has exceeded 600 million, which is sufficient to accommodate 3 billion people, far surpassing the actual demand of 1.4 billion [3]. - There is a structural decline in housing demand due to demographic changes, with a significant decrease in the population of younger generations compared to older ones [3]. - The urbanization rate is nearing 70%, and the demand for new housing is expected to continue shrinking, with a projected decrease of 2.63 million elementary school students by 2026 [3]. Group 2: Policy Changes - A dual-track system for affordable and commercial housing is being established, with plans to introduce 6 million affordable housing units within five years [3]. - The proportion of new housing sales transitioning from pre-sale to existing homes is increasing, from 10.5% in 2020 to an expected 26.5% in 2024, reducing the risk of unfinished projects for buyers [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Buyer Sentiment - Mortgage rates have fallen below 3%, with further reductions anticipated, leading to lower purchasing costs for buyers [5]. - There is an increasing trend of loosening purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, with expectations of further relaxation in core areas [5]. - The market is shifting from a seller's market to a buyer's market, with a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale, reaching over 3 million in 100 cities [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Three types of properties may still hold value in the current market: renovated older communities in prime locations, quality properties near metro stations in first-tier cities, and well-equipped new homes that prioritize living experience [6][8].