日本10年期国债收益率创2008年来新高，日央行或出手干预

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off due to concerns over fiscal conditions and persistent inflation, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields to their highest levels in a decade [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - On August 21, Japan's long-term government bond yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield reaching 1.61%, the highest since October 2008 [1]. - The 20-year bond yield hit 2.655%, the highest since 1999, while the 30-year yield approached its historical high of 3.2% [1]. - As of 6 PM Beijing time, the 10-year yield was at 1.616%, the 20-year yield at 2.649%, and the 30-year yield at 3.197% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bond Yields - The primary driver behind the rising yields is investor expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures following the ruling coalition's loss in the July Senate elections, which will increase Japan's already high debt levels [1][2]. - Persistent inflation in Japan has raised the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, further pushing up bond yields [2]. - A significant drop in demand for Japanese bonds has been noted, with net purchases of 10-year and longer bonds by overseas investors falling to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, just one-third of June's purchases [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The bond market is facing a "disastrous" situation due to a substantial decline in demand, as indicated by both yield levels and bid-to-cover ratios [2]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of rising inflation and potential fiscal stimulus will increase the burden on Japan's already high leverage, contributing to the upward pressure on long-term bond yields [2]. - The current market sentiment reflects a preference for Japanese equities over bonds, indicating a shift in investor confidence amid concerns about fiscal risks [3]. Group 4: Central Bank's Role and Potential Interventions - The Bank of Japan's gradual exit from bond purchases has created a demand gap in the bond market, exacerbating the pressure on yields [2][5]. - Experts believe that if the sell-off continues, the Bank of Japan may intervene to stabilize the market, potentially through liquidity injections or adjustments to its monetary policy stance [6]. - Future movements in long-term bond yields will depend on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy direction, fiscal expansion pace, and global interest rate environment [6].