闪评丨美消费者将成关税政策“最终受害者” 就业疲软或让美联储“被迫降息”

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting minutes indicate that tariffs imposed on global trade partners will continue to impact U.S. consumer and service prices [1][2] - Evidence suggests that foreign exporters have only absorbed a small portion of the tariff costs, with the majority being borne by U.S. domestic businesses and consumers [2] - The Fed's assessment aligns with previous evaluations during Trump's first term, indicating that over 90% of tariff costs are ultimately passed on to U.S. consumers, contributing to inflationary pressures [2][3] Tariff Impact on Prices - Tariffs have led to upward pressure on commodity prices, with significant declines in U.S. goods and services observed in Q2 due to high tariffs [3] - The Fed anticipates that inflation will gradually rise as actual prices increase alongside tariff hikes [3] Employment and Economic Activity - The Fed's minutes reveal a notable increase in downside risks to employment, with signs of a weakening labor market as economic activity and consumer spending slow [5] - Recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a slowdown in non-farm employment growth for July, with revisions to previous months indicating a trend of labor market weakness [6] - The combination of persistent inflation threats and a weakening labor market may compel the Fed to consider a rate cut in September, potentially by 25 basis points [6]