日债又陷抛售潮

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing a sell-off due to concerns over fiscal conditions and persistent inflation, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields to their highest levels in a decade [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.61%, the highest since October 2008, while the 20-year yield reached 2.655%, the highest since 1999, and the 30-year yield climbed to 3.18%, nearing the historical high of 3.2% set in July [1][2]. - As of 8 PM Beijing time, the 10-year yield was reported at 1.611%, the 20-year yield at 2.645%, and the 30-year yield at 3.191% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bond Yields - The primary driver for the rise in long-term bond yields is investor expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures following the ruling coalition's loss in the July Senate elections, which will increase Japan's already high debt levels [2][3]. - Persistent inflation in Japan has raised the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, further pushing up bond yields [3][6]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - In July, net purchases of Japanese government bonds by foreign investors dropped to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD), only one-third of the amount purchased in June [3][4]. - Despite high yields, foreign investor demand for Japanese bonds has waned since July, reflecting concerns over fiscal imbalances and the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from the bond market [6][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The bond market is facing a significant demand drop, described as "catastrophic," due to rising inflation and potential fiscal stimulus, which increases the burden on Japan's already high leverage [3][7]. - Experts suggest that if the sell-off continues, the Bank of Japan may intervene to stabilize the market, potentially through liquidity injections or adjustments to its monetary policy [8][9].