「经济发展」李扬：金融要想好 实体经济必须好

Economic Development - The development of the asset management industry is crucial for reducing the proportion of indirect financing, as it transforms debt into equity through mechanisms like trusts and asset management [3][4] - The current financial system in China primarily supports indirect financing, with a significant reliance on bank loans, while the need for equity capital remains unmet [4][5] - The asset management sector has seen growth but requires further reform, particularly in legal frameworks, to enhance its role in supporting the real economy [6][8] Capital Market and Financing - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the capital market's foundational systems and increasing the proportion of direct financing, especially equity financing [4] - As of June 2023, the total stock of RMB loans reached 228.86 trillion, with an increase of 16.43 trillion from December 2022, while A-share equity financing in the first half of 2023 was 587.1 billion, a decrease of 353 billion from the second half of 2022 [4] - Despite efforts to promote direct financing, indirect financing remains dominant in social financing, indicating a need for more effective measures to enhance equity financing [4][5] Global Economic Trends - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with the IMF projecting growth rates of 3.0% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, indicating potential recessionary conditions [8][9] - Current global inflation poses challenges, with the need for careful monetary policy to avoid exacerbating economic downturns [8][9] - The trend of de-globalization is emerging, impacting global supply chains and economic efficiency, necessitating a reevaluation of economic strategies [9][10] Financial System and Risk Management - The financial system's primary role is to serve the real economy, with a focus on managing risks effectively [12] - The recent depreciation of the RMB against the USD by 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year raises concerns about currency stability and its impact on asset prices [12][13] - Recommendations suggest prioritizing foreign exchange reserves over currency stabilization, emphasizing the importance of maintaining reserves as a more critical factor [13]