股债跷跷板效应显现 债市配置价值几何？

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing continuous adjustments due to multiple factors, including monetary policy, tax periods, and risk preferences in the equity market, leading to a challenging environment for bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market has shown weak performance since August, with long-term bond yields rising significantly during the week of August 11-17 [2]. - Current market sentiment is characterized by a "strong risk appetite, weak reality," indicating that the bond market is sensitive to risk preferences in equity and commodity markets [2][3]. - The bond market is expected to continue its weak trend in the short term, with the 10-year government bond yield anticipated to stabilize between 1.75% and 1.80% [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Bond Market - The adjustment in the bond market is seen as a correction rather than a reversal, with potential investment opportunities arising from oversold conditions [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China has emphasized maintaining a balanced liquidity environment, which is expected to support short-term bonds [2]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies may lead to a sustained increase in market risk appetite, further impacting the bond market [2]. Group 3: Policy Support for the Bond Market - The Ministry of Finance has initiated bond market support operations to enhance liquidity and stabilize the government bond yield curve amid ongoing adjustments [4]. - Specific operations involve 2.7 billion yuan of 3-year bonds and 2.8 billion yuan of 2-year bonds, aimed at improving market dynamics [4]. - Analysts believe that the bond market's performance will ultimately depend on economic fundamentals, despite short-term disturbances from the equity market [4].