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美兰空港(0357.HK):1H仍亏损;看好自贸港红利/枢纽地位

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 1.079 billion yuan for 1H25, a year-on-year decline of 6.1%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 70 million yuan, narrowing by 71.7% compared to the previous year. The weaker performance is attributed to poor traffic flow and competition from other airports and transport modes, but long-term prospects remain positive due to the benefits from the Hainan Free Trade Port [1][2]. Revenue Performance - The company's traffic volume faced pressure, with passenger throughput at 13.91 million, down 4.1% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in popular tourist destinations and competition from other airports [1]. - Revenue from aviation-related businesses fell by 4.6% to 576 million yuan, aligning with traffic growth rates. Non-aviation revenue showed weaker monetization capabilities, with total non-aviation revenue declining by 15.6% to 260 million yuan, despite a 2.5% increase in concession revenue to 243 million yuan driven by steady growth in advertising [1][2]. Cost Structure and Losses - The company's operating costs were rigid, with total costs rising by 5.5% to 1.046 billion yuan in 1H25. Labor costs increased by 13 million yuan, and maintenance costs rose by 19 million yuan due to renovation needs [2]. - Despite the decline in revenue, the net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed to 70 million yuan, a reduction of 178 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in extraordinary expenses from arbitration compensation [2]. Future Outlook - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially launch operations on December 18, 2025, which is expected to stimulate traffic to Hainan Island, providing additional growth opportunities for the company [2]. - The potential acquisition of control over Hainan Airport is anticipated to enhance the efficiency of aviation resource utilization on the island, allowing the company to better leverage its hub position in the region [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecast for 2025 to a loss of 76 million yuan, down from a previous estimate of a profit of 267 million yuan. Projections for 2026 and 2027 have also been reduced by 45% and 29% respectively [2]. - The company is expected to improve profitability in the medium to long term, driven by the benefits of the Hainan Free Trade Port, with a target price adjustment to 11.50 HKD from 11.00 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2].