翰森制药(3692.HK)：创新和BD共振 业绩及管线稳进

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 7.434 billion yuan (+14% YoY) and net profit of 3.135 billion yuan (+15% YoY), driven by significant growth in innovative drug sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, innovative drugs generated revenue of 6.145 billion yuan (+22% YoY), accounting for 83% of total revenue [1] - Excluding collaboration revenue, product sales growth is estimated at approximately 13%, with innovative drug sales growth exceeding 20% [1] Group 2: Treatment Areas Growth - Oncology revenue reached 4.531 billion yuan (+1% YoY), driven by Amivantamab, Furmonertinib, and GSK milestone payments, with product sales growth exceeding 20% when excluding collaboration revenue [1] - Anti-infection revenue was 735 million yuan (+5% YoY), primarily driven by Adefovir [1] - CNS revenue was 768 million yuan (+5% YoY), mainly driven by Inalizumab [1] - Metabolic and other diseases revenue surged to 1.4 billion yuan (+142% YoY), driven by milestone payments from MSD and Regeneron [1] Group 3: Innovation and Business Development - The company has 8+1 innovative drugs and 12+2 indications approved, with over 40 new molecular entities in development, expecting innovative drug sales to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The company has achieved at least one high-quality external authorization annually for three consecutive years, totaling 7.3 billion USD across four projects [1] - The company maintains a strong cash position, allowing for continued licensing of competitive pipelines to expand its product matrix [1] Group 4: Pipeline Updates - Amivantamab is expected to achieve full coverage across multiple treatment lines by the end of 2025, with projected sales of around 6 billion yuan [2] - HS-20093 is in Phase III clinical trials for SCLC and osteosarcoma, with GSK expected to start overseas trials in Q4 [2] - HS-20089 has entered Phase III for ovarian cancer, with GSK planning to initiate key overseas trials in 2026 [2] - HS-20094 is in Phase IIb/III for diabetes and weight loss, with commercialization expected in 2027 [2] - HS-20117 is in Phase III for combination therapy with Amivantamab, and a subcutaneous formulation is entering clinical development [2] - The company is actively expanding into dermatological and renal autoimmune diseases, with HS-10374 and HS-20137 in Phase III trials for psoriasis [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profit for 2025-2027 at 5.202 billion, 5.480 billion, and 5.727 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS estimates of 0.88, 0.92, and 0.96 yuan [3] - The company’s SOTP valuation is estimated at 252.944 billion HKD, with innovative drug DCF valuation at 248.338 billion HKD [3] - The target price is set at 42.53 HKD, reflecting an adjustment based on more optimistic collaboration revenue expectations [3]