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翰森制药(03692.HK):1H25业绩超预期 创新药收入占比增至82.7%

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance exceeded expectations, driven by milestone payments from collaboration with GSK, with revenue of 7.434 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.135 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 15.0% respectively [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from innovative drugs and collaboration products reached 6.145 billion yuan, up 22.1% year-on-year, accounting for 82.7% of total revenue, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company reported collaboration revenue of 1.656 billion yuan, primarily from the upfront payment for oral GLP-1 licensed to Merck and milestone payments from GSK [1] - Excluding collaboration revenue, sales revenue was 5.777 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [1] - By segment, oncology revenue was 4.53 billion yuan (up 21.3% YoY), driven by strong growth of Ameluz and GSK collaboration milestone revenue [1] - The company expects Ameluz's annual sales to reach 6 billion yuan [1] - Other segments included anti-infection revenue of 740 million yuan (up 4.8% YoY), central nervous system revenue of 770 million yuan (up 4.8% YoY), and metabolic revenue of 1.4 billion yuan (down 0.2% YoY) [1] - Gross margin remained stable at 91.1%, with selling expenses of 1.82 billion yuan (up 5.7% YoY), management expenses of 340 million yuan (up 135% YoY), and R&D expenses of 1.44 billion yuan (up 20.4% YoY) [1] Development Trends - The company is advancing its R&D pipeline, with core product Ameluz approved for four indications in China, and expects NDA approval for Ameluz in combination with chemotherapy for NSCLC in 2H25 [1] - HS-20093 (B7H3 ADC) has initiated Phase III clinical trials for SCLC in 2H24, with GSK planning to start key clinical studies by the end of 2025 [1] - HS-20089 (B7H4 ADC) has begun Phase III clinical trials for ovarian cancer in 1H25 [1] - HS-20094 (GLP-1/GIP dual-target) has started Phase III clinical trials for obesity or overweight in 2H24 [1] - The company has eight innovative drug pipelines approved for clinical trials in 1H25, including EGFR/c-Met ADC and KRAS G12D [1] - Future plans include accelerating license-in projects and overseas licensing of proprietary pipelines [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company raised its profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 4.8% and 3.4% to 4.617 billion yuan and 4.841 billion yuan respectively, due to strong growth of Ameluz and BD-related payments [1] - The current stock price corresponds to 45.8x and 43.1x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [1] - The target price has been raised by 93.1% to 45.00 HKD, corresponding to 53.1x and 50.0x P/E for 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential upside of 15.9% [1]