美国已经被踢出局了？中国对特朗普毫不留情，1200吨杂粮将入华，美农民财路被断！

Core Viewpoint - Chinese buyers have secured approximately 8 million tons of soybeans for September and 4 million tons for October, totaling 12 million tons, all sourced from South America, with no share from the U.S. [1] - The traditional "golden window" for U.S. soybean exports from September to January is unusually quiet this year, with U.S. exporters having sold only about 3 million tons by the end of July, marking a 20-year low [1][3]. Group 1 - The first layer of impact from China not purchasing U.S. soybeans is a disruption in pricing, leading to deeper discounts and financial strain on farmers who must choose between selling at lower prices or holding onto inventory [3]. - The second layer involves a disruption in the supply chain, affecting transportation and storage, which can lead to increased costs and inefficiencies throughout the agricultural export system [3]. - The third layer is political repercussions, particularly in agricultural states that are crucial for U.S. political dynamics, where reduced soybean exports could harm local incomes and lead to calls for policy changes [4]. Group 2 - The U.S. agricultural sector is facing a structural issue where high tariffs and political rhetoric are counterproductive, leading to a reliance on subsidies that do not address the underlying market access problems [4][5]. - The current environment prioritizes low-noise trading, with buyers diversifying their sources to mitigate risks, indicating a shift in how global supply chains are managed [7]. - China's strategy of securing soybean contracts from South America is seen as optimizing its asset-liability balance, focusing on cost, risk, and supply stability [8]. Group 3 - The U.S. has been using trade as a political tool, which may yield short-term benefits but risks long-term damage to its agricultural sector as buyers seek to diversify their supply sources [10]. - The competitive advantage of South America in this context is attributed to years of infrastructure development and the ability to provide stable supply chains, contrasting with the U.S.'s current challenges [10].