Core Insights - Zhongtong Express reported a revenue of 11.83 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, while adjusted net profit decreased by 26.8% to 2.05 billion yuan [1][2] Revenue Analysis - The revenue growth of 10.3% in Q2 2025 was driven by an increase in business volume, which reached 9.85 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. However, the average revenue per parcel decreased by 4.7% to 1.18 yuan due to increased subsidies and lighter parcel weights [1][2] - The market share of Zhongtong Express was 19.5%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.6 percentage points [1] Cost and Profitability - The core cost per parcel decreased by approximately 0.07 yuan, with transportation costs down by 0.06 yuan to 0.33 yuan, attributed to economies of scale and lower oil prices. However, the overall cost per parcel increased by 9% to 0.89 yuan due to rising other costs [2] - The gross margin fell by 8.9 percentage points to 24.9%, and the adjusted net margin also decreased by 8.9 percentage points to 17.3% due to a larger decline in revenue per parcel compared to costs [2] Future Outlook - The company has revised its full-year parcel volume growth target to between 38.8 billion and 40.1 billion parcels, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14%-18%, down from the previous estimate of 20%-24% [2] - The board approved a mid-term dividend of $0.30 per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [2] Profit Forecast and Rating - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 9 billion yuan, 9.7 billion yuan, and 10.6 billion yuan respectively, with a "Buy" rating upheld [2]
中通快递-W(02057.HK)：单票收入同比下降 Q2净利短暂承压