Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express-W reported its Q2 and H1 2025 performance, showing a revenue increase but a significant decline in adjusted net profit, indicating pressure on profitability and margins [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached 11.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while adjusted net profit was 2.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% year-on-year [1]. - H1 2025 revenue totaled 22.7 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit at 4.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3% year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted net profit per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.21 yuan, down 12 cents year-on-year, and for H1 2025, it was 0.23 yuan, down 9 cents year-on-year [1]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - Q2 2025 gross margin was 24.9%, a decline of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, while H1 2025 gross margin was 24.8%, down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The increase in operating costs, particularly other costs, was the main reason for the decline in gross margin, with other costs rising by 134.9% in Q2 2025 [2]. - Q2 2025 core single ticket revenue was 1.18 yuan, down 6 cents year-on-year, while single ticket operating cost was 0.89 yuan, up 7 cents year-on-year [2]. Market Position and Guidance - Q2 2025 package volume was 9.85 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with a market share of 19.5%, up 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has lowered its full-year package volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion pieces, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 14.0% to 18.0% [3]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure for H1 2025 was 3.1 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 100 million yuan compared to H1 2024, with expectations for 2025 capital expenditure to remain flat or slightly decrease [3]. - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.3 USD per share for H1 2025, with a payout ratio of 40% [3]. Valuation and Rating - Despite the downward adjustment in package volume guidance leading to revised profit forecasts, the overall valuation level of the e-commerce express delivery industry is expected to rise, leading to an upgrade to a "buy" rating [4]. - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 are 11.10, 12.07, and 13.28 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.74, 11.73, and 10.66 times based on the closing price on August 20, 2025 [4].
中通快递-W(02057.HK)：盈利能力承压 2025Q2市占率环比提升