Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts FY25 net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 1.7 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, exceeding both market expectations and previous estimates due to better-than-expected cost control in self-produced pulp and a decline in coal prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects FY25 earnings to be between 2.1 billion to 2.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 165% to 190%, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 126% to 153% [1] - The company estimates FY25 paper production volume to be over 21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - The company has a projected capital expenditure of over 13 billion yuan for FY25, with a potential decline in FY26 capital expenditure but still at a relatively high level [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity in Guangxi and Hubei, with plans to produce 1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 600,000 tons of cultural paper, 1.75 million tons of chemical pulp, and 600,000 tons of mechanical pulp by FY25 [1] - By the end of FY25, the company's total paper and pulp production capacity is expected to exceed 30 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 8% for paper and over 30% for pulp from 2021 to 2025 [1] Group 3: Cost Management and Market Conditions - The company's performance is primarily driven by a significant reduction in self-produced pulp costs, particularly at its integrated pulp and paper base in Beihai, Guangxi [2] - The average prices for various paper products have shown a downward trend, with boxboard, double glue paper, and white cardboard prices decreasing by 4%, 9%, and 7% respectively in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company needs to monitor changes in self-produced pulp costs and the pricing performance of certain paper products during peak seasons [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its earnings forecast for FY25 and FY26 by 25% and 49% respectively, with projected earnings of 1.8 billion yuan and 2.5 billion yuan [3] - The target price has been increased by 33% to 6.0 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.5x for FY25, FY26, and FY27 [3]
玖龙纸业(02689.HK)：FY25业绩预告超预期 关注自制浆成本优势释放