“抛售潮”来临，比高房价令人头疼，炒房客会慢慢退出楼市速看

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation characterized by an unprecedented wave of property sales, with a 28.7% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing listings in 50 key cities by Q2 2025, marking a five-year high [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in property sales area is indicative of a structural adjustment rather than a simple cyclical fluctuation, with a 12.3% year-on-year decrease in national commodity housing sales area in H1 2025 [3] - The adjustment is not limited to lower-tier cities but is a comprehensive, multi-layered phenomenon affecting all city tiers [3] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy and the introduction of real estate tax trials are setting a new tone for the market, influencing participant behavior [6][9] - The real estate tax, starting in March 2025 in 11 cities, has increased holding costs for property owners, further motivating them to sell [9] Group 3: Financial Constraints - The growth of real estate loans was only 3.2% year-on-year as of June 2025, the lowest since 2009, with a 15% increase in bank loan rates adding financial pressure on investors [7] - A survey indicated that 67% of multi-property owners are considering selling at least one non-primary residence to alleviate financial burdens [7] Group 4: Market Sentiment - A fundamental shift in market sentiment is occurring, with 35.2% of respondents now viewing housing primarily as a place to live rather than an investment, an increase of 11.7 percentage points from 2023 [10] - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.8% year-on-year in June 2025, with second-hand prices down by 2.3% [10] Group 5: Buyer Opportunities - Increased supply has enhanced buyers' bargaining power, with the average price difference between transaction and listing prices in Shanghai's second-hand market widening to 8.7% in Q2 2025 [12] - For first-time buyers, the price correction represents a favorable opportunity, with costs for a 100 square meter apartment in first-tier cities down by approximately 50-100 million yuan compared to 2023 highs [13] Group 6: Future Outlook - The real estate investment focus is shifting from capital appreciation to rental income and service value, indicating a more rational and diversified investment logic [15] - By 2030, urbanization in China is expected to reach around 70%, providing ongoing demographic support for the real estate market, although it will play a less dominant role in economic growth [15]