聚焦杰克逊霍尔！鲍威尔演讲或成美联储政策关键转折点

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the global central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which is viewed as a critical moment for the future direction of monetary policy [1] - Market expectations are high for Powell to confirm the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with a 73.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut during the September 16-17 meeting according to CME FedWatch [1] - Recent volatility in U.S. stock markets is noted, with the Nasdaq index down 2.4% for the week, the S&P 500 down 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.4% [1] Group 2 - Analysts warn that if Powell does not commit to or suggest that market expectations are excessive, it could lead to significant repricing of bond yields and risk assets [1] - Support for a rate cut is based on moderate consumer price increases due to tariffs and signs of cooling in the job market, but there are concerns about rising inflation as wholesale prices recorded their largest increase in three years [1] - Political pressure on Powell is increasing, with President Trump criticizing the Fed's slow rate cuts and calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook over alleged mortgage application fraud [2]