21评论丨多空因素交织，黄金价格会如何？

Group 1 - The global gold market is experiencing mixed signals due to geopolitical developments and expectations of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [2] - After the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US in April, the US dollar index fell to a three-year low, leading to a surge in international gold prices, which exceeded $3400 per ounce [2] - In the second quarter, global gold demand increased to 1248.76 tons, with investment demand being the primary driver, while jewelry demand saw a decline [3] Group 2 - Central banks globally increased their gold reserves, with a net addition of 22 tons in June, indicating heightened risk aversion among investors [4] - In the first half of 2025, central bank gold purchases totaled 123 tons, slightly lower than the previous year, with Poland being the largest net buyer [4] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could positively impact gold prices, with upcoming speeches from Powell expected to provide more clarity on monetary policy [5] Group 3 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may lead to a shift in market sentiment, which could negatively affect gold prices if risk aversion decreases [6] - China is implementing favorable policies for the gold industry, including a development plan aimed at enhancing resource security and innovation in the gold sector [7] - The establishment of an international gold trading center in Hong Kong is progressing, which may strengthen its position as a global financial hub [7]