锰硅需求存隐忧 期价或承压运行

Core Viewpoint - The manganese silicon market is experiencing a downward price trend due to a shift in market sentiment and increased supply pressure, despite stable demand from steel mills [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The current downward trend in manganese silicon prices is characterized by a strengthening basis, driven by a shift in market sentiment as previous leading commodities undergo high-level adjustments [2]. - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a continued weakness in the real estate market and a decline in infrastructure investment growth, further contributing to the change in market sentiment [2]. - The cost side has also loosened, with a significant drop in coke prices since mid-August, leading to a cumulative decline of over 9.7% in main contract prices, which has negatively impacted manganese silicon prices [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Manganese silicon supply has significantly increased, with production rates rising since May, reaching year-to-date highs [3]. - As of August 15, the operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 45.75%, with an average daily output of 29,580 tons, marking increases of 12.15 percentage points and 6,330 tons from previous lows [3]. - Key production regions, such as Inner Mongolia, have shown high production enthusiasm, with daily output reaching 14,710 tons, while other regions like Ningxia and Yunnan have also reported significant production increases [3]. Group 3: Demand Conditions - Despite rising production, manganese silicon inventories have not accumulated, as steel mills have actively replenished stocks, with a notable increase in bidding volumes and prices from northern steel mills in August [4]. - The operating rates and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills were reported at 83.59% and 90.22%, respectively, indicating stable production levels [4]. - The profitability of steel mills remains strong, with a profit margin of 65.8%, supporting raw material demand; however, recent declines in steel prices may lead to reduced profits for short-process steel mills, which could negatively impact manganese silicon demand [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The overall market for manganese silicon is characterized by a balance of increasing supply and stable demand, but underlying contradictions in the fundamentals are accumulating, with diminishing cost benefits [5]. - The expectation is for manganese silicon prices to continue a trend of weak downward movement, with a focus on monitoring steel mill production in the future [5].