基本面难有改善的情况下 甲醇价格或延续下跌趋势

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing downward pressure due to weakened cost support from domestic coal prices, increased supply from domestic production recovery, and rising import pressures, while downstream demand remains weak during the off-season [1][5]. Group 1: Domestic Supply Dynamics - Domestic coal futures prices have shown a high-level correction, leading to a loss of cost support for methanol prices, which are now primarily driven by supply and demand fundamentals [2]. - As of mid-August, the average operating rate of domestic methanol plants was 79.00%, a slight decrease of 1.35 percentage points week-on-week, but an increase of 4.16 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Methanol weekly production averaged 186.33 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.80 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 7.90 million tons [2]. Group 2: External Import Pressure - In Q3, methanol supply from the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America is abundant, but international demand is weak, leading to increased shipments to China [3]. - In July, typhoon impacts delayed methanol unloading, resulting in a total unloading volume of 110.69 million tons, with over 200,000 tons postponed to August [3]. - August methanol imports are expected to reach 1.55 million tons, setting a new monthly import record, with ongoing high import levels anticipated in September [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Conditions - Domestic methanol demand remains weak, with limited recovery in operating rates across downstream sectors [4]. - As of mid-August, the operating rate for formaldehyde was 30.13%, for dimethyl ether was 9.17%, and for acetic acid was 86.56%, indicating limited demand recovery [4]. - Port methanol inventory in East and South China reached 89.11 million tons, a significant increase of 29.51 million tons week-on-week, contributing to a bearish outlook for methanol futures [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - With the weakening cost support from coal prices, increased domestic production, and high import pressures, the methanol market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5].