杰克逊霍尔开幕：鲍威尔讲话在即，地区联储主席忙打“预防针”？

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is being closely watched by the market, particularly for signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with concerns about potential hawkish signals leading to market volatility [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that inflation pressures have not subsided, and there is currently no basis for immediate rate cuts, emphasizing an open-minded approach to each meeting [3] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that inflation is closer to 3% than 2%, warning that premature easing could harm public expectations, and the current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% has not significantly restrained the economy [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are nearly 80%, with potential for four cuts over the next year, although some strategists caution that optimism regarding easing may be excessive [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the current Jackson Hole meeting occurs during a complex market environment, with a clear dovish bias, but unexpected hawkish signals could arise if inflation resurges or political pressures increase [4] - The S&P 500 index has seen a decline for five consecutive days, reflecting market uncertainty and reactions to Fed signals [7] Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Political Pressure - The July Fed meeting minutes indicate that most officials prioritize inflation risks over labor market concerns, with political pressures from the Trump administration exacerbating internal disagreements [6] - Recent economic data, including a weaker employment report and a surprisingly strong producer price index, have complicated the policy outlook [6] - Political pressure is mounting as President Trump criticizes Powell for not cutting rates promptly and calls for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could influence the Fed's policy direction if his preferred candidate is appointed [6]