旺季不旺”，鸡蛋价格“跌跌不休

Core Insights - The egg market is experiencing a continuous decline in prices despite being in the demand peak season, with the main futures contract JD2509 hitting a year-low of 3010 yuan per 500 kg [1] - The core reasons for the price drop are supply-demand imbalance and pessimistic market sentiment [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Current supply levels are high, with the laying hen population reaching 1.3557 billion, a 1.19% increase month-on-month and a 6.197% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level in six years [4] - The demand for eggs is slow to start, leading to a situation where the peak season is not performing as expected, causing pressure on producers [3][4] - The ongoing low prices have persisted below the cost line for nearly four months, discouraging producers from replenishing their flocks and increasing the willingness to cull older hens [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the current losses in egg production, the extent and duration of the loss cycle are not severe, leading producers to maintain some optimism about future prices [5] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to boost demand, but current market sentiment remains cautious, with traders reluctant to stock up [5] - There is an expectation that prices may rise after September, but the high supply levels and existing inventory will limit the extent of any price increases [5]