北新建材(000786)：石膏板业务有所承压 继续期待两翼和海外业务发力

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a notable growth in its paint business and a focus on international expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.558 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.930 billion, down 12.85% [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 7.312 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.46%, while net profit for the same period was 1.087 billion, down 21.88% [1]. - The gypsum board segment faced challenges, with revenue down 8.57%, and the keel business revenue decreased by 10.72% [1]. - The waterproof and paint businesses showed growth, with waterproof materials revenue increasing by 5.99% and paint revenue reaching 2.163 billion, up 44.42% [1]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 30.35%, slightly lower than the previous year, with gypsum board gross margin at 38.68%, down 0.94 percentage points, and waterproof materials gross margin down 2.34 percentage points [2]. - The company experienced an increase in credit impairment losses, amounting to approximately 0.07 billion, up by about 0.06 billion from the previous year [2]. - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 0.962 billion, a significant decline of 52.86% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of consolidating Jia Baoli and a decrease in cash received from sales [2]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance its global market share in the gypsum board sector and expects continued rapid growth in its waterproof and paint businesses through both organic and external expansion [3]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.997 billion, 4.523 billion, and 5.010 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.1X, 9.8X, and 8.9X [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, considering the potential of new business expansions and the competitive advantages in the gypsum board sector [3].