13.557亿只存栏创6年新高！鸡蛋旺季不旺 期货触及年内新低

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing a continuous decline in prices despite being in the traditional demand peak season, driven by supply-demand imbalance and pessimistic market sentiment [1][3]. Supply Side Pressure - The inventory of laying hens remains at a historical high of 1.3557 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 1.19% and a year-on-year increase of 6.197%, leading to significant downward pressure on egg prices [1][3]. - The ongoing increase in new laying hens exacerbates market supply pressure, counteracting the seasonal demand growth expected in late August [3]. - Egg prices have been below the cost line for nearly four months, resulting in losses for egg producers and reducing their willingness to replenish stocks [3]. Demand Side Constraints - High temperatures and weak egg prices have led traders to adopt a "just-in-time" purchasing strategy, with no significant new demand drivers in the short term [4]. - The market sentiment is pessimistic, characterized by excess supply and high inventory levels, which are expected to limit the price rebound potential [4]. - Although demand may be delayed due to the postponement of the Mid-Autumn Festival, it is anticipated that suppressed demand could return as the holiday approaches, but the overall price increase is expected to be limited due to high supply levels [4].