以史为鉴，技术革命都遵循同一个规律，AI“投资狂潮”会和当年铁路、电网一样吗？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current AI revolution is in a "frenzied deployment phase," which historically precedes a bubble burst before entering a golden age [1][4] - Major tech companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are projected to invest up to $750 billion in data centers to support AI models over the next two years, with global spending in this area expected to reach $3 trillion by 2029 [1][2] - A report from MIT indicates that 95% of surveyed companies have not seen any returns from their generative AI investments, raising concerns about the sustainability of current investments [1][4] Group 2 - Historical patterns show that technological revolutions, including the current AI wave, follow a predictable cycle characterized by initial over-investment and market bubbles [2][3] - The AI revolution is unique as it is driven by both software and hardware, altering financial dynamics and enabling rapid global expansion through network effects [5][6][7] - The competitive landscape is intensified by digital globalization, which increases both opportunities and risks, as seen with the impact of cheaper AI models on investor confidence [8] Group 3 - To transition into a golden age, society must actively shape the revolution to serve its purposes, similar to historical efforts to regulate powerful companies and address labor market disruptions [9] - Current challenges such as dysfunctional financial markets, concentrated corporate power, and climate change pose significant hurdles that need to be addressed for the AI revolution to fulfill its potential [9]