债市呈现慢牛格局，关注十年国债ETF（511260）投资机会

Group 1 - The bond market in 2025 is characterized by a wide fluctuation, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.60% and 1.90%, indicating a 30 basis points (BP) fluctuation [1] - The current yield of the 10-year government bond is at 1.72%, which is in the middle of this year's fluctuation range [1] - The bond market is expected to maintain a slow bull or oscillating bull trend due to weak demand in the context of China's economic transformation [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical conflicts overseas have influenced market risk preferences, which may adjust as the equity market enters a slow bull phase [2] - The "anti-involution" trading that began in early July has led to rising commodity prices, potentially contradicting the previous weak inflation trend and causing market adjustments [2] - The market is currently experiencing a slight rebound amid a narrow fluctuation, driven by short-term increases in risk preference and discussions around the "weak inflation" narrative from the past few years [3] Group 3 - The 10-year government bond is viewed positively due to its lower volatility compared to 30-year assets and higher absolute returns compared to shorter-term assets [3] - In a low-interest-rate environment, it is advisable to pursue assets with relatively high certainty and smaller tolerable fluctuations, which the 10-year government bond fits [3] - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) offers advantages such as transparent holdings, T+0 trading, and pledge repurchase, making it an attractive option for investors [3]