新一轮稳楼市政策“组合拳”蓄势待发

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent meeting emphasizes the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift from merely stopping the decline to consolidating stability, reflecting a clear understanding of the current market situation [1][3]. Policy Direction - The focus of real estate policies this year has been on "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the market, with previous meetings highlighting the need for stronger measures to support the market [1]. - The latest meeting marks a transition from "promoting" to "consolidating" market stability, suggesting that while initial signs of stabilization are present, more targeted actions are necessary to ensure lasting recovery [1][4]. Urban Renewal and Demand Release - The meeting proposes integrating urban renewal with the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, indicating a significant policy shift towards a dual approach of stimulating both supply and demand [2]. - Urban village renovation is expected to drive real estate investment and help reduce inventory, creating a closed loop of "renovation—housing vouchers—release of improvement demand—inventory reduction" [2]. Economic Context - The stability of the real estate market is crucial for the broader economy, influencing consumer confidence and investment levels, as real estate accounts for over 20% of fixed asset investment [3]. - The government recognizes the limitations of traditional stimulus measures and is seeking integrated approaches that combine real estate with urban renewal and improvements in living standards [3][4]. Structural Challenges - The real estate market faces structural contradictions, such as limited supply in first- and second-tier cities alongside high inventory in third- and fourth-tier cities, necessitating a reform-oriented approach to policy [4]. - Key reforms include land system reform to address complex land ownership issues, financial innovation to attract social capital, and targeted demand policies to support specific demographics [4]. Long-term Vision - The shift in perspective from viewing real estate as a short-term regulatory tool to recognizing it as a vital component of long-term economic governance reflects a deeper understanding of its role in urban management and consumer upgrading [4].