Yardeni预计美联储9月降息概率仅40%，杰克逊霍尔年会鲍威尔讲话成焦点

Group 1 - Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September is around 40% [1] - The current labor market is characterized by instability, with initial jobless claims showing small layoffs but an increase in continuing claims indicating longer job search periods [1] - Concerns are raised about persistent high service sector inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for services remaining in the 3%-4% range [1] - Despite challenges, the delay in rate cuts is seen as a positive signal reflecting economic resilience and the fact that inflation has not yet reached the 2% target [1] - Corporate earnings exceeded expectations, with second-quarter profits reaching a historical high and a year-on-year growth rate close to 11%, significantly above the previous market expectation of 3% [1] Group 2 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of interest rate cuts are becoming apparent, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester opposing rate cuts due to high inflation [2] - Mester emphasizes the importance of maintaining a moderate tightening policy to bring inflation back to target levels [2] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George believes inflation risks are slightly higher than employment market risks, stating that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned [2] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic views the current monetary policy as slightly restrictive and anticipates a return to neutral interest rates by 2026, suggesting only one rate cut this year [2] Group 3 - Bostic maintains a single-direction trajectory for interest rates amid economic uncertainty, expecting clearer economic outlooks later this year [3] - He notes that inflation has been stable in the 2.5%-2.8% range, above the Fed's 2% target, while signs of weakening in the labor market are emerging [3] - Recent downward revisions in non-farm payrolls for May and June indicate a significant reduction in job creation, although single data points do not establish a trend [3] - The statements from Fed officials come ahead of the Jackson Hole central bank conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will be closely monitored for hints regarding the September monetary policy meeting [3]