【资金观察】沪指连续突破，谁在做多？谁在“畏高”？这只ETF规模大逆袭

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a significant shift in ETF fund preferences, with a notable net redemption of over 200 billion yuan in ETFs this year, excluding state-owned enterprises' increases [1] - Despite the overall market facing redemption pressures, the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has seen a remarkable net inflow of 1.154 billion yuan this year, with a share increase of over 5000%, making it the fastest-growing ETF in the market [1][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent market uptrend is primarily driven by three types of active funds: retail investors, leveraged funds, and private equity [2] - Retail investors have shown caution, with new A-share accounts in July remaining flat at 1.96 million, significantly lower than the levels seen in February and March [6] - Leveraged funds have seen a continuous net inflow since late June, with a cumulative scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, pushing the financing balance above 2 trillion yuan [5] Group 2: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors are exhibiting a "fear of heights" sentiment, leading to limited participation in the current market rally [6] - The net inflow of small retail funds has been marginal, with a recent weekly net inflow of 113.4 billion yuan, still below the average of 131.2 billion yuan seen in the first quarter [8] - There has been a significant redemption of ETFs, with a total net redemption exceeding 200 billion yuan this year, and a recent weekly outflow of 16.1 billion yuan, marking a new high for 2024 [8] Group 3: Enhanced ETF Performance - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has achieved a year-to-date growth in scale, with a share increase of over 50 times, driven by its outstanding performance [9] - As of August 11, the ETF has recorded a one-year return of 111.83%, outperforming the benchmark index by 34.43% [9][12] - The ETF's ability to provide excess returns makes it an attractive option for investors seeking certainty amid market volatility [12] Group 4: Future Capital Inflows - Despite low retail participation, there is a broader trend of asset allocation towards equity markets, driven by a low-interest-rate environment [13] - There are indications of a shift in resident deposits, with a decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan in July, suggesting funds are moving towards capital markets [13][14] - Institutional funds, including foreign and insurance capital, are expected to continue flowing into the market, providing solid support [14][15]