黑工、外劳与本地青年：香港失业率上升的三重撕裂

Core Viewpoint - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong has risen to 3.7% from 3.5% in the previous quarter, marking the highest level since late 2022, with significant implications for the local economy and employment landscape [1][2][3]. Employment Data - The total number of employed individuals in Hong Kong is 3.671 million, while the total labor force stands at 3.816 million, resulting in an unemployment count of 145,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate has increased by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and by 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. Sector-Specific Unemployment - The construction and catering industries are particularly affected, with unemployment rates exceeding 5%, specifically reaching 7.2% in construction and 6.4% in catering [4]. - The retail sector has also seen a rise in unemployment, increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 5% [4]. Economic Outlook - The construction industry's ongoing decline is attributed to developers' lack of confidence in acquiring land and starting new projects, leading to a sustained increase in unemployment [6]. - Predictions suggest that if businesses maintain a cautious hiring approach, the unemployment rate could approach 4% in the coming months, although improvements may occur if the real estate and retail sectors recover [7]. Structural Issues - There are concerns regarding structural reasons behind the rising unemployment rate, prompting discussions on potential measures to alleviate the situation [8]. - The government has noted that the increase in unemployment is partly due to new graduates entering the job market, which typically occurs during the summer [9]. Labor Market Dynamics - There is a debate regarding the impact of foreign labor on local employment, with some local workers expressing concerns about job availability and wage pressure due to the influx of foreign workers [12]. - Employers argue that a lack of sufficient local manpower in sectors like retail and catering necessitates the hiring of foreign labor to improve service quality and reduce business closures [13]. Policy Considerations - The government is reviewing the "Supplementary Labor Optimisation Scheme," which currently restricts the importation of foreign labor for certain job categories, with a decision expected by mid-2026 [16]. - Proposed measures include enhancing transparency in labor market data and adjusting application quotas to better align with market needs [17].