马耳他央行预测 GDP 增长将放缓

Economic Growth Forecast - Malta's central bank predicts real GDP growth will slow from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025, with further decline to 3.3% by 2027 [1] - The bank's report indicates a slight downward adjustment for 2025's GDP growth compared to previous forecasts, while projections for the following two years remain largely unchanged [1] Key Growth Drivers - Private consumption is expected to remain the main driver of GDP growth throughout the forecast period (2025-2027), despite a decline from recent peaks [1] - Investment is anticipated to continue recovering in the first two years of the forecast period [1] - Net exports are projected to contribute positively to GDP growth, primarily due to service trade, although this contribution will be significantly less than domestic demand [1] Employment and Unemployment Trends - Employment growth is expected to gradually slow, decreasing from 5.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025, and further to 2.4% and 2.3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to decline to 2.7% by the end of the forecast period [1] Wage Growth and Inflation - The labor market is expected to remain tight, which will be a key factor driving wage increases [2] - Wage growth is forecasted to slow from 6.3% last year to 4.4% in 2025, with further declines to 3.7% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - The average annual inflation rate is expected to reach 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.4% last year, primarily reflecting a decrease in food and service inflation [2] - Inflation rates for 2026 and 2027 are projected to further decline to 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively, driven mainly by a decrease in service inflation [2]