半年报预警：6月乳品全渠道销售下滑9.6%

Dairy Industry Overview - The dairy market continues to face pressure, with total channel sales of dairy products declining by 9.6% year-on-year as of June 2025, and offline channel sales down by 12.7% [1] - The cumulative income loss in the dairy farming industry from 2023 to 2025 is projected to reach 70 billion yuan, with losses from fresh milk powder production amounting to 20 billion yuan [1] - The demand side remains weak, with total channel sales of dairy products expected to decline by 2.7% in 2024 [1] Company Performance - In 2024, Yili's revenue is expected to decline by 8.24% to 115.78 billion yuan, while Mengniu's revenue is projected to drop by 10.1% to 88.68 billion yuan [1] - Bright Dairy's revenue is anticipated to decrease by 8.33% to 24.28 billion yuan, and New Dairy's revenue is expected to fall by 2.93% to 10.67 billion yuan [1] - In Q1 of this year, Yili's revenue grew by 1.35% to 33.02 billion yuan, but liquid milk revenue fell by 12.32% to 75.00 billion yuan [2] - China Feihe, a major player in infant formula, expects a revenue decline of 8% to 10% in the first half of this year, estimating revenue between 9.1 billion and 9.3 billion yuan [2] Market Trends - The overall decline in dairy demand has put significant pressure on the performance of various companies in the first half of the year [2] - The shift in consumer preferences and market dynamics is evident, with companies facing challenges in maintaining revenue growth amidst declining sales in key product categories [2]