Ge Long Hui·2025-08-22 03:25Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities gives Lenovo Group an "Overweight" rating due to its strong market position and the accelerating penetration of AI PCs, projecting a global market share increase to 24.8% by Q2 2025 [1] Group 1: AI PC Market - The AI PC market is expected to grow rapidly, with 2024 being considered the market's inaugural year, leading to a significant increase in shipments and a projected global market penetration rate of 85% by 2027 [1] - Sales revenue for AI PCs is forecasted to rise from 14.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 131.2 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a substantial market opportunity [1] - The average price of AI PCs is expected to remain stable or increase, driven by the proliferation of AI technology and decreasing hardware costs, enhancing performance and cost-effectiveness [1] Group 2: IT Services Market - The IT services market in China is projected to reach 377.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, driven by AI infrastructure and industry intelligence solutions [2] - SSG is expected to maintain double-digit growth over the next three years, benefiting from its strategic positioning and early adoption of AI innovations [2][4] Group 3: Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) - ISG has established a comprehensive end-to-end infrastructure solution, with revenue growth of 36% year-on-year in Q1 FY25/26, primarily due to increased cloud investments and strong server demand [3] - The AI server business has seen revenue growth of over 100% year-on-year, supported by advanced liquid cooling technology [3] - Revenue growth for ISG is projected at 19.5%, 15%, and 15% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with improving profitability as the business scales [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - SSG is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 16.1%, 13.0%, and 12.0% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with operating profit margins improving to 22.2%, 22.4%, and 22.6% [4] - The company anticipates continued investment in marketing for AI PC promotion, while management expenses are expected to decrease due to organizational adjustments [4] - Adjusted net profit growth is projected at 12.9%, 16.8%, and 16.0% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, aided by a lower effective tax rate in FY24/25 [5]