STARTRADER：今晚鲍威尔的讲话将会影响小盘股的未来

Group 1 - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is highly anticipated, as it will directly influence the short-term fate of small-cap stocks [1][3] - If Powell signals a dovish stance and hints at a rate cut in September, small-cap stocks may experience a significant rebound; conversely, a cautious or hawkish tone could lead to selling pressure [3][4] - Approximately 60% of companies in the Russell 2000 index face debt maturities within the next two years, with an average financing cost 320 basis points higher than the five-year Treasury yield [3] Group 2 - The current market is grappling with the state of the U.S. economy, as July non-farm payrolls showed only 114,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 175,000, while the ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 46.8 [4] - The Russell 2000 index has rebounded 12% since its July low, outperforming the S&P 500's 8% increase, with the highest-weighted sectors being financials (17%), industrials (15%), and healthcare (14%) [4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the U.S. economy enters a mild recession in 2025, small-cap earnings could contract by 15%-20%, compared to 8%-10% for large companies [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is currently balancing inflation control with economic growth, as the core PCE price index year-over-year increase remains at 2.7%, still above the 2% target [5] - Regardless of whether Powell hints at a rate cut, the volatility of the Russell 2000 index is expected to remain high until a true turning point in interest rates is reached [5]