私募信贷市场警报频传：官方低违约率背后，影子违约率已飙升至6%

Core Viewpoint - The private credit market, valued at $1.7 trillion, is facing increasing default warnings, raising concerns among analysts about the underestimated risks in one of Wall Street's most profitable businesses [1] Group 1: Default Rates and Market Conditions - The current default rate in the private credit market is between 2% and 3%, but when including "non-accrual loans," the rate rises to 5.4%, which is comparable to the syndicated loan market [1] - The official default rate for private credit increased from 2.9% to 3.4% in the second quarter, while the "shadow default rate" reached 6%, significantly higher than 2% in 2021 [4] - Analysts from various firms note that the concentration of low credit rating borrowers and rising recent default rates indicate ongoing challenges in the market [5] Group 2: Investment Trends and Fundraising - Despite a slowdown in fundraising, private credit funds still attract investors with returns exceeding 8%, although the amount raised this year is only $70 billion, the smallest share of alternative asset inflows since at least 2015 [1] - Analysts express concerns that rapid capital commitments may lead to lower underwriting standards, which could amplify losses during economic downturns [1] Group 3: Borrower Behavior and Risk Management - Borrowers are utilizing arrangements that allow them to defer cash interest payments until debt maturity, which can mask default risks [4] - The reputation of private credit for low default rates is based on narrow definitions of default, and if broader definitions are applied, the actual rate of non-compliance would be significantly higher [4] - Different credit rating agencies and consulting firms monitor borrower groups differently, complicating the overall market assessment [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Some market participants remain optimistic, citing that declining interest rates alleviate pressure on highly leveraged companies, and the interest coverage ratio within loan portfolios remains healthy [8] - The sentiment suggests that robust companies with strong cash flows can withstand current interest rate levels [8]