新美联储通讯社：鲍威尔周五将重估现有政策框架

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is expected to announce a significant policy framework adjustment at the Jackson Hole central bank conference, moving away from the framework established five years ago, which is no longer suitable in the current high inflation environment [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework Changes - The 2020 policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve involved two main shifts: allowing inflation to moderately exceed the 2% target for a period to compensate for previous shortfalls, and focusing solely on high unemployment without concern for low unemployment, reducing the urgency for preemptive rate hikes [2][3]. - The framework was initially seen as a major innovation to address concerns about the central bank's ability to respond to future recessions due to historically low interest rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Response - The surge in inflation in 2021 revealed flaws in the framework, as the Fed's commitment to maintaining low rates to stimulate labor market recovery led to delayed action, with rate hikes only beginning in March 2022 when inflation reached a 40-year high [3][4]. - Economists have pointed out that the 2020 framework contributed to the Fed's slow response, as officials overly focused on minimizing unemployment [3][4]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Framework Effectiveness - Some former Fed officials argue that the asymmetric employment target led to a delayed response to the inflation surge, while others contend that the main issue was the significant forecasting errors made by the Fed and external economists regarding inflation being temporary [4][5]. - The need for a robust framework that remains stable despite macroeconomic fluctuations has been emphasized, highlighting the importance of not overreacting to short-term economic results [5].