Workflow
星展银行:上调中国宏桥目标价至29港元 上半年业绩超预期、铝价前景乐观
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-22 04:10

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao's performance in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with a positive outlook on aluminum prices, leading to a maintained "buy" rating and an increased target price from HKD 22 to HKD 29 [1] - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao's revenue rose to RMB 81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) of alumina and aluminum products, as well as increased sales volume [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 25.7%, and net attributable profit grew by 35% to RMB 12.36 billion, with a net profit margin increase of 3 percentage points to 17% [1] Group 2 - The financial health of China Hongqiao is improving, with a significant increase in interest coverage ratio to 17.6 times due to optimized debt structure and improved interest rates, alongside plans to continuously reduce debt levels [1] - Although no interim dividend was declared for the first half of 2025, management expects the annual dividend payout ratio to remain stable at 63% for the fiscal year 2024 [1] - Based on the expected earnings per share of HKD 2.60 for the fiscal year 2025 and a 63% potential dividend payout ratio, the implied dividend yield is projected to be 7%, which is attractive for investors [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead, DBS Bank anticipates that strong aluminum prices will continue, highlighting China Hongqiao's competitive advantages [2] - The management of China Hongqiao expects the average selling price of electrolytic aluminum to be between RMB 20,600 and RMB 21,300 per ton, and the average selling price of alumina to be between RMB 3,200 and RMB 3,300 per ton, indicating a sustained strong outlook for aluminum prices [2] - Global aluminum demand is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2025, outpacing a supply growth of 1.8% [2]