鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔“告别演说”前瞻：9月降息能否拍板定案？

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is expected to outline the Fed's economic outlook and policy framework, which will significantly influence the Fed's future and Powell's political legacy [2][3]. Policy Path Planning - Powell's speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment" indicates a focus on macroeconomic conditions and long-term policy goals, part of a review conducted every five years [3]. - Markets anticipate Powell will lay the groundwork for a potential interest rate cut in September, as he has hinted at significant policy shifts in previous Jackson Hole speeches [4]. - Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle suggests Powell may not explicitly signal a September rate cut but will likely indicate support for it, depending on upcoming data [5]. Independence Maintenance - President Trump has consistently criticized Powell and the Fed, pushing for lower interest rates, but the recent attacks have escalated beyond monetary policy [7][8]. - Powell may use this speech to defend the Fed's independence, emphasizing its importance for public benefit [8]. Framework Modification - Powell is expected to discuss modifications to the Fed's policy framework, particularly the potential abandonment of the "average inflation targeting" strategy established before the pandemic [9]. - The previous framework allowed for tolerating inflation above 2% to compensate for periods of low inflation, but recent inflation trends may prompt a return to a more proactive stance [9]. - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist anticipates Powell will highlight changes to the Fed's long-term goals, advocating for a return to a "preemptive" approach to inflation [9]. Market Reactions - Traders are pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in September, with expectations for at least two additional 25 basis point cuts by year-end [11]. - Investors are closely monitoring Powell's speech for new clues regarding the rate cut path, which could significantly impact gold prices [12].