ATFX：黄金徘徊关键关口：美联储降息预期受挫，和平希望削弱避险需求

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have started a noticeable rebound due to a weakening dollar, influenced by changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and rising inflation indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data has tempered expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts, with traders now anticipating only one 25 basis point adjustment in September [1]. - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July recorded its fastest month-on-month growth since 2022, indicating rising price pressures [1]. - Consumer inflation expectations have increased, with one-year expectations rising from 4.5% to 4.9% and five-year expectations from 3.4% to 3.9% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - The confirmation of the U.S. sovereign credit rating as "AA+/A-1+" by S&P Global, despite high structural deficits and debt levels, has temporarily enhanced the dollar's attractiveness [2]. - The geopolitical landscape has shifted with Russian President Putin agreeing to a peace summit with Ukrainian President Zelensky, which may reduce the safe-haven demand for gold [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently hovering around $3,340, facing support between $3,290 and $3,268, with a potential drop below this range leading to further declines [5]. - Key resistance levels are identified between $3,430 and $3,452, with a breakthrough potentially pushing prices towards the $3,500 mark [5]. - The balance of bullish and bearish forces in the gold market is currently in flux, with upcoming Federal Reserve signals and global economic data expected to significantly influence short-term price movements [5].