扛不住了！中国转向巴西大豆，美国豆农致信：尽快对华达成协议

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, which have dropped from 22 million tons to just 3 million tons, marking a 86% decrease, primarily due to trade policies and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][4][19]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China has signed a substantial soybean order of 12 million tons with Brazil, leaving U.S. farmers without any sales [1][7]. - From January to August, China's total soybean imports reached 78 million tons, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, with Brazilian soybeans accounting for 78.3% of this total, while U.S. share fell to 4.2% [1][4]. - Brazil's soybean planting area is set to expand by 15%, with expected production reaching 160 million tons by 2026, establishing a robust supply chain to China [4][13]. Group 2: Price and Market Impact - Soybean prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have fallen to $8.22 per bushel, which is 15% below production costs, indicating a significant market shift [5][9]. - Following the announcement of agricultural subsidies, soybean prices dropped by 1.5%, reflecting market skepticism about the effectiveness of such measures [9]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Consequences - Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports, intended to pressure China, resulted in a retaliatory 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans, eliminating any price advantage for U.S. farmers [7][18]. - The agricultural subsidy of $61 billion primarily benefited large farms and urban investors, leaving small farmers with insufficient support [9][14]. - The U.S. agricultural sector is witnessing a rise in farm bankruptcies, with 88 farms filing for bankruptcy in April 2025, a 76% increase from the previous year [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - China aims to increase its soybean self-sufficiency to 25% by 2030, reducing reliance on imports, while Argentina and Uruguay are also expanding soybean exports to China [17]. - Brazil has initiated currency settlements in RMB for 35% of its soybean trade, mitigating dollar exchange rate risks and enhancing trade efficiency [16].