BBMarkets蓝莓外汇：鲍威尔讲话在即，市场降息预期是否过于乐观

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole annual meeting is a significant event for global central banks, with particular focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which may influence interest rate decisions and set the tone for global markets in the coming year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that inflation issues are not resolved, indicating insufficient reasons for rate cuts at this time [3] - Kansas City Fed President George emphasized that inflation is closer to 3% rather than the target of 2%, warning against premature easing that could alter public inflation expectations [3] - Overall, Fed officials appear cautious, believing it is not yet time to relax monetary policy [3] Group 2: Market Expectations vs. Fed Officials - The market is more optimistic, with nearly 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and potential for four cumulative cuts over the next year [3] - Analysts caution that market expectations may be overly optimistic, with potential for a "hawkish surprise" if inflation rebounds or political pressures increase [3][4] Group 3: Economic Data and Uncertainty - Recent economic data has been mixed, with Fed officials prioritizing inflation risks, while employment data revisions have strengthened rate cut expectations [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed unexpected strength, complicating the Fed's decision-making process amid concerns over both weak employment and persistent inflation [4] Group 4: Political Pressures - The Fed faces political pressure from the White House, with President Trump criticizing Powell and pushing for changes in the Board of Governors that could influence rate decisions [5] - The independence and credibility of the Fed are under scrutiny due to these political dynamics [5] Group 5: Market Reactions - On August 21, U.S. stock markets declined, indicating investor caution despite expectations for rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty about future economic conditions [5] - The upcoming speech by Powell is critical, as it could lead to rapid market adjustments depending on whether he signals a hawkish or dovish stance [5][6]