韩国今年经济或仅增长0.9% 为疫情冲击以来最慢增速

Economic Growth Outlook - South Korea's economic growth is expected to slow down this year, marking the slowest growth since the pandemic-induced contraction in 2020, primarily due to potential disruptions from U.S. tariffs [1] - The government forecasts a 0.9% growth in 2025, slightly above the Bank of Korea's May prediction of 0.8% [1] Export Performance - Exports remained resilient in the first half of the year as manufacturers shipped ahead of U.S. tariff increases, but a recent trade agreement with the U.S. may weaken exports [1] - Data shows a 2.7% decline in exports to the U.S. in the first 20 days of August, indicating a slowdown following a 1.4% growth in July [1] Economic Challenges - The forecast highlights the vulnerability of South Korea's economy, which is closely tied to global supply chains and is seen as a leading indicator of global economic growth [1] - The economy is recovering slowly from a political crisis and faces structural issues such as weak construction activity and high household debt [2] Government Stimulus Measures - The South Korean parliament and cabinet approved an additional budget of 31.8 trillion won (approximately $23.3 billion) to mitigate trade headwinds [2] - A support plan worth 45.8 trillion won is set to be launched to enhance supply chain resilience [2] Future Economic Plans - The government acknowledges that achieving the 0.9% growth target for the year will be challenging, requiring approximately 1% growth in the second half [2] - A fiscal plan of 210 trillion won for 2026-2030 aims to boost potential growth rates to 3% through significant investments in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, healthcare, and defense [2]