日本长债重回“危机模式”

Core Viewpoint - A "slow-motion crisis" may be brewing in the global government bond market, with Japan at the forefront of this turmoil [1] Group 1: Japanese Long-Term Bonds Under Pressure - Japanese ultra-long-term bond yields have surged to levels not seen in decades, driven by concerns over fiscal expansion and weakening investor demand [2][4] - The latest market turmoil pushed the 20-year bond yield to 2.655%, the highest since 1999, while the 10-year bond yield reached 1.61%, a new high since 2008 [2] - The rise in yields is causing direct pressure on corporate financing in Japan, as companies are shifting towards short-term financing to avoid long-term debt costs [9][10] Group 2: Weak Demand and Fiscal Expansion Concerns - Concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook are the core factor driving yields higher, with expectations that the government may increase fiscal spending following the July elections [7] - There has been a significant drop in overseas investor demand, with net purchases of Japanese bonds over 10 years falling to 480 billion yen in July, only one-third of June's amount [6][8] - The withdrawal of foreign investors raises concerns about the stability of the long-end yield curve, as they have been a dominant source of demand in the ultra-long bond market [8] Group 3: Global Context of the Crisis - The turmoil in Japan's bond market reflects a broader global trend, with rising long-term bond yields posing challenges to financial market stability [12] - High bond yields are making stocks appear "astonishingly expensive," marking the end of the "TINA" (There Is No Alternative) era for investors [13] - The OECD projects that sovereign borrowing in high-income countries will reach a record $17 trillion this year, complicating central banks' efforts to reduce balance sheets [18] Group 4: Fiscal Dominance and Its Implications - The concept of "fiscal dominance" is emerging, where rising government debt and interest costs exert political pressure on central banks to maintain low rates, potentially undermining their inflation control efforts [16][17] - There are warnings of a potential "debt death spiral," where governments may need to borrow more to pay rising interest, leading to currency devaluation [19] - Gold prices have reached historical highs this year, indicating that the market is pricing in these risks [20]