Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-22 08:18Core Viewpoint - Macquarie forecasts that Pop Mart (09992) will achieve approximately 33 billion RMB in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, with a non-IFRS net profit margin of 35% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The target price for Pop Mart has been raised by 11% to 400 HKD, while the target price-to-earnings ratio has been adjusted from 34.5 times to 33 times due to anticipated growth slowdown starting in 2026 [1] - Net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 17% and 16% respectively, reflecting higher expectations for revenue and profit margins [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 7% and 8% respectively, driven by better outlooks for product launches and ongoing expansion in overseas markets [2] Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - Pop Mart's revenue in the Americas has increased by 1,142% year-on-year, indicating significant growth potential [1] - The company currently derives 59% of its sales from online channels, suggesting ample opportunity for physical store openings [1] - Macquarie believes that Pop Mart's focus on store quality and productivity will maintain discipline, while opening stores in prime locations will enhance brand awareness among celebrities and opinion leaders [1] - Expansion in Europe and other regions is just beginning, with long-term potential for localization [1] Group 3: Product Development - Pop Mart is investing in IPs beyond The Monsters, aiming for a more balanced IP portfolio [1] - The upcoming Mini Labubu series demonstrates the company's ability to monetize through expansion into new scenarios and categories [1]