Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with the main contract down by 0.64% to 265,930 CNY/ton, amid tight supply conditions and low processing fees from smelters. The supply situation is expected to gradually improve as Myanmar's tin mines resume production, leading to a weak short-term price outlook and a wide fluctuation pattern in tin prices [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tin ore supply remains tight, with low import levels. In July, domestic tin ore imports were 10,200 tons (approximately 4,335 metal tons), down 13.71% month-on-month and 31.79% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to July totaled 72,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.32% [1]. - Imports from Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria, have declined due to extended transportation cycles and geopolitical disruptions. Myanmar's imports remain low due to rainy season hindrances and transportation bans from Thailand, making short-term supply improvements unlikely [1]. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Recent spot prices for tin have slightly decreased, with smelters maintaining a strong pricing stance but limited actual transactions. Traders are actively quoting prices, and there is a slight recovery in market activity as downstream buyers show increased interest in replenishing inventories [1]. - The tin market continues to exhibit weak supply and demand dynamics, with traders adjusting to market conditions. Downstream orders are on a downward trend, influenced by seasonal demand weakness in the electronics sector and declining solar energy orders [1]. Future Market Outlook - The future market outlook suggests that supply-demand contradictions are becoming less pronounced, with tin prices expected to follow macroeconomic trends and market sentiment. The tight supply of tin ore and scrap remains unchanged, supported by low LME inventories, but weak consumption and high domestic inventories limit upward price momentum [2]. - Short-term price movements are anticipated to remain within a narrow range, with integer resistance levels intact. Market participants are advised to monitor the impact of Powell's speech on interest rate expectations [2].
锡矿进口维持低位 沪锡走势纠结【8月22日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-22 08:27