通胀担忧及财政风险打压市场情绪 日本30年期国债收益率升至历史新高

Group 1 - Japan's 30-year government bond yield has reached a historical high of 3.21%, surpassing the previous peak of 3.2% set in July, driven by ongoing inflation concerns and rising fiscal risks [1][3] - The core CPI in Japan rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding market expectations of 3% and significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, which has heightened expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [3] - Following the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections in July, there are concerns about increased government bond issuance due to anticipated new fiscal stimulus measures, leading to a slowdown in foreign investor demand for Japanese government bonds [3] Group 2 - The investment appeal of ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds is becoming evident, with some life insurance companies finding current yields attractive, although there is still potential for further yield increases in longer maturities [3] - Market participants are closely watching comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference for signals regarding the central bank's policy direction, with a current estimated probability of a rate hike by the end of October at approximately 51% [3][4] - A recent survey indicated that 92% of economists do not expect a rate adjustment at the next policy meeting in mid-September, but 63% anticipate an increase in the basic borrowing cost to at least 0.75% in the next quarter, up from 54% in the previous month [4]