80%概率降息？市场屏息等待鲍威尔发话

Group 1 - The focus of the global market is on the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to discuss potential interest rate cuts in September [1][3] - Market participants are currently pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, indicating strong expectations for a reduction [1] - The theme of this year's meeting is "Transforming Labor Market: Demographics, Productivity, and Macro Policy," reflecting a shift in the Fed's focus from inflation to employment as inflation shows signs of easing [1][3] Group 2 - Powell's upcoming speech will address the labor market's recent weakness, particularly in light of disappointing July employment data, which saw a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the previous two months [3][5] - Economists from Goldman Sachs predict that Powell may shift his previous stance to emphasize the risks in the labor market and express a willingness to cut rates if necessary [5] - There is speculation that the Fed may adjust its policy framework, potentially moving away from the "Flexible Average Inflation Target" (FAIT) established in 2020, with some analysts suggesting a return to more traditional employment targets [5][6] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs forecasts three rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year due to the significant slowdown in the labor market [6] - Barclays takes a more cautious stance, suggesting that the first rate cut may not occur until December, while JPMorgan emphasizes that the Fed's decisions will depend on upcoming employment and CPI data [6][8] - The bond market historically reacts sensitively to the Jackson Hole meeting, with expectations of notable yield fluctuations, prompting investors to adjust their positions ahead of the event [8]