百利好晚盘分析：市场翘首以待 央行年会开幕

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market shows a weak rebound, with the possibility of an early end to the short-term rally. The upcoming Jackson Hole central bank meeting is crucial for predicting future Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] - Market speculation is high regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the latest PPI data causing some traders to temper their expectations. However, the bond market continues to bet on a rate cut [1] - Technical analysis indicates a weak bullish momentum for gold, with significant resistance at $3334 and a potential drop below $3327 leading to new lows [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, but the overall outlook remains pessimistic due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances. OPEC+ has increased production, exacerbating the situation [2] - Since April, OPEC+ has been in a production increase phase, with a total increase of 246.7 million barrels per day expected by September, ahead of schedule [2] - Technical indicators suggest a potential for a mid-term rebound in oil prices, but the overall trend remains bearish with resistance at $64 [2] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The US dollar index showed a slight rebound but remains in a downward trend, heavily influenced by Federal Reserve monetary policy [3] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding a potential rate cut in September, with some officials opposing it due to high inflation levels [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the dollar index is facing resistance from long-term moving averages, with a potential for a pullback [4] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish K-line pattern, indicating the start of a mid-term adjustment. The short-term outlook shows lower highs and a potential continuation of the downtrend [5] Group 5: Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing a corrective phase following previous declines, with a high probability of forming a downward ABC pattern. Resistance is noted at $4.42 [6] Group 6: Economic Data Overview - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 reached 235,000, exceeding expectations and marking a new high since late June [7] - The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI for August is 53.3, surpassing expectations and indicating a return to expansion [7] - EIA natural gas inventories rose by 130 billion cubic feet, with the rate of increase slowing down [7] Group 7: Upcoming Events - Key events include an interview with Boston Fed President Collins and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, which are expected to provide insights into future monetary policy [8]