美国认清现实，中国无可替代！2200万吨订单将清零？特朗普坐不住了，罕见对中方“举白旗”

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the significant decline in U.S. soybean orders from China, which are expected to drop to zero this year, contrasting with the historical average of 22 million tons annually [1][3] - Trump's recent calls for China to quadruple its soybean orders are seen as unrealistic, given that Brazil has already secured substantial orders from China for September and October, totaling 8 million tons and 4 million tons respectively [3][5] - The U.S. soybean market is facing a critical situation as farmers report a 30% drop in income due to the lack of Chinese orders, which poses a risk to Republican electoral support in agricultural states [5][7] Group 2 - The trade dynamics have shifted in favor of Brazil, which has become the dominant supplier of soybeans to China, with imports from Brazil expected to reach 74.65 million tons in 2024, a 6.7% increase year-on-year [3][7] - The price advantage of Brazilian soybeans, which are cheaper by $15 to $50 per ton compared to U.S. soybeans, along with established logistical investments by China in Brazil, further complicates the U.S. position [3][7] - The current trade environment reflects a lack of mutual benefit, as China's ambassador to the U.S. pointed out the imbalance created by U.S. policies that restrict high-tech cooperation while pressuring China to purchase low-value agricultural products [5][7]