KVB安全吗：鲍威尔讲话能否打破黄金3330-3350震荡格局？

Group 1 - The recent trends in the gold market are influenced by both news and technical factors, with the Federal Reserve's policy direction being the largest uncertainty [1] - The latest meeting minutes indicate that most officials prefer to keep interest rates unchanged, while a minority suggests early rate cuts, leading to an 85% market bet on a rate cut in September [1] - The internal discussion within the Federal Reserve about adjusting the inflation target framework could lead to a hawkish interpretation by the market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economic performance shows contradictions, with July's CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 3.0%, still above the Fed's 2% target, while the job market is weakening, with August non-farm payrolls at 73,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [3] - The market sentiment reflects a scenario where inflation is not fully stabilized, but employment is declining, contributing to frequent fluctuations in gold prices [3] - Institutional trading patterns are evident, with gold prices experiencing sharp rises and falls, attributed to high-frequency trading [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold remains in a consolidation range, with daily fluctuations between $3,325 and $3,352 per ounce, and resistance levels at $3,348, $3,355, and $3,360 [4] - Support levels are identified at $3,330, $3,325, and $3,310, with the daily pattern showing solid support below but insufficient bullish momentum [4] - Short-term indicators suggest a balanced state between bulls and bears, with MACD showing a bullish crossover but diminishing volume [4] Group 4 - The potential volatility from Powell's speech is significant, with a hawkish tone possibly driving prices below $3,325 towards $3,310 or even $3,300 [6] - A dovish tone could push prices up to the $3,360 to $3,370 range, while a neutral stance may keep prices within the $3,330 to $3,350 range [6] - Position sizing and risk management are crucial, with recommendations to limit single positions to 1%-2% of the account and to adjust positions before major announcements [6]