鲍威尔讲话将上演哪种剧本？一文读懂三大情景下的市场风暴

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is highly anticipated, as it will provide insights into the Fed's latest thoughts on interest rate policy [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are almost certain of a rate cut in September and are closely monitoring Powell's statements regarding the policy path for the remainder of the year [1] - The market is currently focused on rate cut expectations, as reflected in the muted response to large retail earnings and the July meeting minutes from the Fed [1] - There is a 47% probability that there will be two rate cuts before the end of the year, and any deviation from these expectations could lead to market volatility [1] Group 2: Scenario Analysis - Scenario 1: Hawkish Surprise If Powell indicates a more conservative rate cut path than expected, U.S. stocks may face downward pressure due to high valuations reflecting an ideal outlook, making the market sensitive to any recalibration of rate cut expectations [2] - Scenario 2: Dovish Surprise In the best-case scenario where Powell suggests a more accommodative rate cut path, this could provide significant support for future earnings growth of major companies, positively impacting U.S. stocks. However, this scenario is considered the least likely [3] - Scenario 3: Meeting Expectations If Powell's speech aligns with market expectations, confirming a September rate cut and another potential cut by year-end, market reactions could range from neutral to negative. Investors might engage in "sell the news" behavior, indicating that the outcome has already been priced in [4]