Yanghe(SZ:002304) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-22 10:35Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing significant revenue and profit declines, prompting a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026, while maintaining an "overweight" rating due to potential future reforms and brand strength [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.796 billion, a year-on-year decline of 35.32%, and a net profit of 4.344 billion, down 45.34%. Q2 revenue was 3.729 billion, down 43.67%, with net profit at 707 million, a decline of 62.66% [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 4.76 billion (-57.6%), 4.91 billion (-61.8%), and 5.16 billion, with corresponding EPS of 3.16 (-3.83), 3.26 (-4.10), and 3.42 [1]. Product and Regional Performance - The mid-to-high-end product segment, particularly the Hai Tian Meng series, has been significantly impacted by declining demand, with revenue of 12.67 billion, down 36.5%. Ordinary liquor revenue was 1.84 billion, down 27.2% [3]. - Revenue from domestic sales was 7.12 billion, down 25.8%, while revenue from outside the province was 7.39 billion, down 42.7%, indicating a more substantial decline in external markets [3]. Contract Liabilities and Sales - As of H1 2025, contract liabilities stood at 5.88 billion, an increase of 1.94 billion year-on-year but a decrease of 1.15 billion quarter-on-quarter. Q2 sales cash receipts were 2.57 billion, down 48%, aligning with revenue trends [4]. Profitability Metrics - Q2 gross margin remained relatively stable at 73.3%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, the sales expense ratio increased by 2.3 percentage points due to fixed advertising and personnel costs, leading to a net profit margin decline of 9.6 percentage points to 18.9% [5].